Life Prediction Model for Oil-impregnated Paper Bushing Based on Weibull Distribution

YANG Xian; FENG Da; LI Chong; LIN Chunyao; KE Chunjun; WU Kai

doi:10.13296/j.1001-1609.hva.2015.11.017

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Life Prediction Model for Oil-impregnated Paper Bushing Based on Weibull Distribution

更新时间：2025-04-26

- Life Prediction Model for Oil-impregnated Paper Bushing Based on Weibull Distribution
- High VoltageApparatus Vol. 51, Issue 11, Pages: 103-109(2015)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 广东电网公司电力科学研究院
  2. 国网河北省电力公司电力科学研究院
  3. 西安交通大学电气工程学院电力设备与电气绝缘国家重点实验室
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13296/j.1001-1609.hva.2015.11.017
  CLC： TM216.5
- Published：2015
- 稿件说明：
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[1]杨贤,冯达,李冲,林春耀,柯春俊,吴锴.基于威布尔分布的油纸套管寿命预测模型[J].高压电器,2015,51(11):103-109.

YANG Xian, FENG Da, LI Chong, et al. Life Prediction Model for Oil-impregnated Paper Bushing Based on Weibull Distribution[J]. High voltageapparatus, 2015, 51(11): 103-109.
[1]杨贤,冯达,李冲,林春耀,柯春俊,吴锴.基于威布尔分布的油纸套管寿命预测模型[J].高压电器,2015,51(11):103-109. DOI： 10.13296/j.1001-1609.hva.2015.11.017.

YANG Xian, FENG Da, LI Chong, et al. Life Prediction Model for Oil-impregnated Paper Bushing Based on Weibull Distribution[J]. High voltageapparatus, 2015, 51(11): 103-109. DOI： 10.13296/j.1001-1609.hva.2015.11.017.

摘要

为研究油纸套管的寿命分布以及发生层间击穿后的剩余寿命

结合绝缘材料寿命的威布尔分布理论

建立了套管绝缘层寿命模型。并利用蒙特卡罗方法仿真计算了某型号110 k V油纸套管的寿命分布以及发生层间击穿后的剩余寿命分布。研究表明

该型号油纸套管的寿命符合形状参数为19.68

尺度参数为22.05的威布尔分布。当发生一层和两层击穿之后

形状参数分别减小为5.47和0.22

这意味着发生层间击穿之后由于电场分布的改变使得套管的寿命会迅速减小

层间击穿对于套管内绝缘是一个自加速过程

这对油纸套管的监测与检修具有一定的意义。

Abstract

To investigate the life distribution of oil-impregnated paper（OIP）bushing before and after interlayer breakdown

a life prediction model for OIP bushing is built using Weibull distribution theory. Then Monte Carlo method is used to simulate and calculate the life distribution of a 110 k V OIP bushing before and after breakdown.Results show that the life distribution of the OIP bushing follows Weibull distribution with the shape parameter of19.68 and the scale parameter of 22.05. The shape parameter reduces to 5.48 and 0.22 after one-layer breakdown and two-layer breakdown

respectively. It means that the residual life of the bushing decreases rapidly due to the electric field change after interlayer breakdown. Breakdown of the bushing insulation is a self-accelerated process.This study may be helpful for maintenance and monitoring of oil-impregnated paper bushings.

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