Research on the Life Prediction of Power Transformer Based on DAHP Algorithm and Non-equidistant GM（1,1） Model

GUO Shaowei; ZANG Chunyan; MA Jixian; LONG Kaihua; LI Haoyang; ZHAO Yanwen

doi:10.13296/j.1001-1609.hva.2017.11.024

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Research on the Life Prediction of Power Transformer Based on DAHP Algorithm and Non-equidistant GM（1,1） Model

更新时间：2025-04-26

- Research on the Life Prediction of Power Transformer Based on DAHP Algorithm and Non-equidistant GM（1,1） Model
- High VoltageApparatus Vol. 53, Issue 11, Pages: 146-151(2017)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国网冀北电力有限公司冀北电力科学研究院
  2. 华中科技大学电气与电子工程学院
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13296/j.1001-1609.hva.2017.11.024
  CLC： TM41
- Published：2017
- 稿件说明：
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[1]郭绍伟,臧春艳,马继先,龙凯华,李昊杨,赵延文.基于DAHP算法及非等间隔GM(1,1)模型的电力变压器技术寿命预测研究[J].高压电器,2017,53(11):146-151.

GUO Shaowei, ZANG Chunyan, MA Jixian, et al. Research on the Life Prediction of Power Transformer Based on DAHP Algorithm and Non-equidistant GM（1,1） Model[J]. High voltageapparatus, 2017, 53(11): 146-151.
[1]郭绍伟,臧春艳,马继先,龙凯华,李昊杨,赵延文.基于DAHP算法及非等间隔GM(1,1)模型的电力变压器技术寿命预测研究[J].高压电器,2017,53(11):146-151. DOI： 10.13296/j.1001-1609.hva.2017.11.024.

GUO Shaowei, ZANG Chunyan, MA Jixian, et al. Research on the Life Prediction of Power Transformer Based on DAHP Algorithm and Non-equidistant GM（1,1） Model[J]. High voltageapparatus, 2017, 53(11): 146-151. DOI： 10.13296/j.1001-1609.hva.2017.11.024.

摘要

为减少电网提前或延迟退役电力变压器带来的巨大损失

提出了一种基于DAHP算法及非等间隔GM（1

1）模型的电力变压器技术寿命预测新方法。笔者首先从电力变压器特性出发

结合DAHP（改进的层次分析法）算法

构建电力变压器健康状况评估指标体系

并计算得到电力变压器的健康指数（health index）值。然后在电力变压器历年健康指数值基础上

结合灰色理论非等间隔GM（1

1）模型

建立了电力变压器技术寿命预测模型。最后

应用该模型分别对110、220、500 k V等级的在运电力变压器进行了技术寿命预测研究

验证了该方法的可行性

为电网退役电力变压器提供了参考依据。

Abstract

To reduce the huge losses of power transformer retirement in advance or delay in power grid

this article put forward a new method to predict technology life of power transformer based on DAHP algorithm and NonEquidistant GM（1

1） model.Firstly we build Health evaluation Index system of power transformer combining DAHP（improved analytic hierarchy process）algorithm from the characteristics of power transformer.And then calculate the health index value of power transformer.Secondly we set up technical life prediction model combining with the Non-Equidistant GM（1

1） model based on the past health index value of power transformer.Finally we verifies the feasibility of this method by applying our model in power transformer of 110 kV

220 kV and 500 kV which provides a reference for the retirement of power transformer.

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