Study on Reliability of High Voltage Disconnector Based on Weibull Distribution and Monte Carlo Method

ZHANG Saipeng; FENG Shitao; ZHAO Chunming; GUO Ronghuan; DONG Hongda; ZHANG Hengyuan; CHEN Jieyuan

doi:10.13296/j.1001-1609.hva.2021.06.012

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Study on Reliability of High Voltage Disconnector Based on Weibull Distribution and Monte Carlo Method

更新时间：2025-04-26

- Study on Reliability of High Voltage Disconnector Based on Weibull Distribution and Monte Carlo Method
- High VoltageApparatus Vol. 57, Issue 6, Pages: 86-93+101(2021)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国网吉林省电力有限公司电力科学研究院
  2. 国网吉林省电力有限公司
  3. 长春中泰投资有限公司
  4. 国网吉林省电力有限公司检修公司
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13296/j.1001-1609.hva.2021.06.012
  CLC： TM564.1
- Published：2021
- 稿件说明：
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ZHANG Saipeng, FENG Shitao, ZHAO Chunming, et al. Study on Reliability of High Voltage Disconnector Based on Weibull Distribution and Monte Carlo Method[J]. High voltageapparatus, 2021, 57(6): 86-93+101.
DOI：

ZHANG Saipeng, FENG Shitao, ZHAO Chunming, et al. Study on Reliability of High Voltage Disconnector Based on Weibull Distribution and Monte Carlo Method[J]. High voltageapparatus, 2021, 57(6): 86-93+101. DOI： 10.13296/j.1001-1609.hva.2021.06.012.

摘要

高压隔离开关的可靠性对电网的安全稳定运行具有重要影响。建立由本体支架、传动机构、操作机构、绝缘子和导电回路5个子系统组成的故障树模型

以某公司110(66)kV及以上隔离开关运行数据为基础

研究基于最小二乘法和平均秩次法的威布尔分布参数估计

有效掌握故障发生概率随运行时间的变化规律

在此基础上采用蒙特卡洛方法对高压隔离开关进行可靠性分析。结果表明:传动机构为影响隔离开关可靠运行的薄弱环节;该方法能够有效评估高压隔离开关的可靠运行时间

为设备设计、制造及状态检修提供指导策略。

Abstract

The reliability of high voltage disconnector plays an important role in the safe and stable operation the power grid.A fault tree model consisting of such five subsystems as body support

drive mechanism

operating mechanism

insulator and conductive circuit is set up.The operating data of certain company’s disconnector at 110 （66） k V and above is taken as the basis

the Weibull distribution parameters estimation based on least square method and average rank method is studied so to master effectively the variation of the failure probability with the operation time.On this basis

the Monte Carlo method is adopted to analyze reliability of the high voltage disconnector.The result shows that the drive mechanism is a weak link that affects the reliable operation of the disconnector.This method can effectively assess the reliable operation time of the high voltage disconnector and provide guidance strategies for the design

manufacture and condition maintenance of the equipment.

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